Dr. Shariful Haque Priom
India may have deployed nuclear warheads for the first time, marking a significant development in the country’s strategic posture, according to the latest annual report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
In its SIPRI Yearbook 2026, the Sweden-based think tank estimated that India possessed approximately 190 nuclear warheads as of January 2026, an increase from the 180 warheads estimated a year earlier. More notably, SIPRI suggested that New Delhi may have begun placing a limited number of these warheads on operational delivery systems during peacetime.
For decades, analysts have generally believed that India maintained a policy of storing its nuclear warheads separately from missiles and aircraft, requiring assembly only during periods of heightened tension. SIPRI’s latest assessment, however, indicates that this practice may be evolving.
According to the report, India has continued to strengthen its nuclear triad, which consists of aircraft, land-based missile systems and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The institute noted that India’s increasing reliance on canisterized missile systems and the conduct of sea-based deterrence patrols suggest a possible shift toward mating some warheads with their launchers even during peacetime.
SIPRI further assessed that India may have deployed a small number of nuclear warheads aboard a single SSBN platform by January 2026. Such a move would represent a major step in enhancing the credibility of the country’s second-strike capability, a cornerstone of nuclear deterrence strategy.
The report also stated that India appears to be producing additional warheads for new missile systems and is pursuing the development of hypersonic cruise missiles. SIPRI observed that New Delhi’s nuclear modernization efforts increasingly emphasize longer-range capabilities, reflecting concerns related to China’s growing military power.
China was estimated to possess 620 nuclear warheads as of January 2026, including 34 deployed warheads. Pakistan, India’s other nuclear-armed neighbor and long-time rival, was assessed to have maintained a stable stockpile of around 170 nuclear warheads.
Despite the apparent focus on China, SIPRI noted that India’s nuclear planning continues to be strongly influenced by its enduring rivalry with Pakistan. Relations between the two South Asian countries remain strained, particularly following a brief military confrontation in May 2025 after a deadly terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 people.
India accused Pakistan of supporting militant groups involved in the attack, an allegation Islamabad firmly denied.
While Indian authorities have not publicly confirmed SIPRI’s assessment regarding deployed warheads, the report highlights the evolving nature of the region’s nuclear landscape and raises fresh questions about strategic stability in South Asia.
